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Happy New Year to you and welcome to 2019. At the start of each year we like to look back and reflect on what happened over the past 12 months. Then we look forward 12 months and give predictions on property prices and interest rates.

Firstly, let’s look at what happened in 2018

  • Property Prices
    • Halifax forecasted a 0 to 3% rise for 2018 and their House Price Index to November 2018 showed a 0.3% rise in prices, making their prediction correct.
    • Nationwide predicted prices would rise by c.1% in 2018 and their House Price Index in December 2018 evidences that prices are 0.5% higher than in December 2017. Broadly as predicted.
  • Interest Rates
    • The Bank of England rate rose from 0.50% to 0.75% during the year
    • Mortgage product starting rates are typically 0.15% higher on residential mortgages and believe it or not are slightly better on buy to let mortgages since the start of 2018.
  • Number One Mortgages
    • Had another record year and help more clients than ever. Thank you for your continued recommendations – keep them coming!
    • To ensure the experience for you remains 5 star, we grew our administration side of the business with Lilly and Lucy joining the Number One Team.

So what about 2019…..

Interest Rate Predictions for 2019

  • Robert Sinclair, Association of Mortgage Intermediaries: cut in March if we do not see a smooth transition out of Europe
  • Ed Stansfield, Capital Economists: 0.25% rise
  • Ray Boulger, John Charcol: No change
  • Sophie Hockenhull, Moneyfacts: 0.25% rise
  • Richard Pike, Phoebus Software Ltd: “rates are just as likely to fall as they are to rise

Property Price forecasts for 2019. See below predictions for UK house prices:

  • Russell Galley, mortgage lender the Halifax: 2% to 4% rise
  • Simon Rubinsohn, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors: no change
  • Richard Donnell, property market analysts Hometrack: 3% rise
  • Miles Shipside, property portal Rightmove: no change
  • Andrew Burrell, Capital Economics: 1% rise

What do I forecast will happen to property prices and interest rates in 2019….

The demand to own property in our great nation is huge, we live on an Island, broadly respect our green spaces and have a growing population. We do have the Brexit decision hanging over us creating a ‘wait and see’ camp of prospective buyers, these buyers will at some stage come out of the woodwork and create more demand for property, which I believe this will be in 2019.

I predict property prices will rise between 0 to 2% during 2019 and the Bank of England interest rate will remain at 0.75% or increase to 1%.

I am frequently asked, “when is the best time to buy?” The answer can be different depending on personal circumstances however my answer is commonly, “when you see the right property for you and your family in combination with being able to proceed with affordable monthly mortgage payments, then this is the right time.”

What are Number One Mortgages plans this year….?

We’ve done our business plans and expect to have yet another record year. Our focus remains on offering an excellent service to keep you guys recommending us. We are comfortable in our new High Street location and room to expand as per the needs of the business.

We are looking forward to achieving your objectives throughout 2019 and beyond…

Have a great 2019!

Kevin Dunks
Managing Director